Metals show mixed performance, with LME copper falling over 1%, alumina rising for four consecutive days, and coking coal and coke, as well as iron ore, rising over 1% [overnight market].

SMM July 10 News:

Metal Market:

Overnight, metals generally rose in both domestic and overseas markets. LME copper fell by 1.33%, while the % change of other metals was within 1%. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83%, and LME zinc rose by 0.81%. The main contract of alumina surged again near the close, with a gain of 2.75%, recording four consecutive days of gains. The main contract of casting aluminum rose by 0.55%.

Overnight, the ferrous metals series generally rose. Iron ore rose by 1.09%, and HRC rose by 0.81%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 2.03%, and coke rose by 1.59%.

Overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose by 0.19%, and COMEX silver closed flat at $36.63 per ounce. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.19%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.33%.

As of the overnight close at 6:47 a.m. on July 10

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

The General Office of the State Council issued the "Notice on Further Increasing Policy Support for Stabilizing Employment". The Notice clarifies support for enterprises to stabilize employment positions. It expands the scope of special loans for stabilizing and expanding employment positions, deepens government-bank cooperation, optimizes business processes, and further enhances loan convenience. The Notice proposes incentives for enterprises to expand positions and absorb employment. It expands the scope of social insurance subsidies, providing a 25% subsidy on individual contributions for small and medium-sized enterprises in key industries that absorb key groups for employment and pay relevant fees as required. It expands the coverage and implementation scale of work-relief policies to widely absorb key groups for employment.

On July 9, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about US President Trump's recent remarks on China-US relations. How does the Foreign Ministry view this? Mao Ning stated that China has always viewed and handled China-US relations in accordance with the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation.

On July 9, the State Administration for Market Regulation held the fourth enterprise fair competition symposium in 2025. Meng Yang, a member of the Party Leadership Group and Deputy Director of the Administration, pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen fair competition reviews, intensify anti-monopoly supervision and law enforcement, improve the efficiency of investment and merger reviews, and create a favorable market environment and broader space for the development of private enterprises.

US Dollar Aspect:

The US dollar closed flat overnight at 97.5. Meeting minutes show that at the US Fed's interest rate-setting meeting on June 17-18, only "a few" policymakers indicated that they believed an interest rate cut could occur as early as July. Most policymakers remained concerned that President Trump's actions to reshape global trade using tariffs would bring inflationary pressures. Trump demanded an immediate and substantial interest rate cut and called for Fed Chairman Powell to resign. However, meeting minutes showed that only a minority of the 19 Fed policymakers supported a recent interest rate cut, with "some" policymakers even believing that there was no need for a cut at all. On Wednesday, Trump called on the Fed to lower the federal funds rate by at least 3 percentage points and again urged the Fed to cut interest rates to help reduce the country's debt servicing costs.

In other currencies:

The US dollar hovered near a more than two-week high against the yen as trade tensions escalated.

The US dollar rose against major currencies on Tuesday. Xinhua News Agency, New York, July 9 - US President Trump sent letters to the leaders of six countries on the morning of the 9th, notifying them that new tariffs would be imposed on their goods exported to the US. Trump also threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and indicated that previously threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would be imposed soon.

The US dollar fell 0.18% against the yen to 146.35 yen, after earlier touching 147.19 yen. So far this week, the US dollar has risen about 1.5% against the yen, on track for its biggest weekly gain since mid-December.

The euro fell 0.09% against the US dollar to 1.171 US dollars.

The New Zealand dollar initially fell against the US dollar in volatile trading but rose 0.03% to 0.59 US dollars by the end of the New York session, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected and pointed out recent inflation risks.

Macro:

Today, data such as China's June M2 money supply annual growth rate, China's June total social financing - year-to-date, China's June new RMB loans - year-to-date, the total amount of the US July 9 10-year Treasury note auction, the bid-winning interest rate of the US July 9 10-year Treasury note auction, the high yield of the US July 9 10-year Treasury note auction, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5, and the final annual growth rate of Germany's June CPI will be released.

In addition, the Fed released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. Musalem, the 2025 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, gave a speech on the US economy and monetary policy. The Ministry of Commerce held its second regular press conference in July.

Crude oil:

As of the overnight close, oil prices in the two markets showed mixed performance, with crude oil falling 0.06% and Brent oil rising 0.04%. Investors weighed strong US gasoline demand data and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, while the US was about to impose copper tariffs.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. The EIA said that in the week ending July 4, crude oil inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels to reach 426 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 2.1 million barrels. The EIA also reported that gasoline demand increased by 6% last week, reaching 9.2 million barrels per day. Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said, "Demand seems steady and hasn't slowed down."

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast on Tuesday that US oil production in 2025 would be lower than previously expected, as falling oil prices prompted US producers to slow down production activities, which also supported oil prices. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook report, the EIA said it expected the world's largest oil producer, the US, to produce 13.37 million barrels per day in 2025, compared to the previous forecast of 13.42 million barrels per day. In 2026, US oil production is expected to reach 13.37 million barrels per day, in line with previous forecasts.

Market participants predict that OPEC is likely to significantly increase production again in September, when eight member countries will fully exit voluntary production cuts, while the UAE's production quota will be expanded.

On Saturday, some member countries of "OPEC+" (composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil producers) held an online meeting. Representatives from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman ultimately decided to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels starting from August, which surprised the market as market participants had expected the meeting this month to maintain a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels. Suvro Sarkar, head of the energy industry team at DBS Bank (Suvro Sarkar), said, "Faced with accelerated production increases by OPEC+ member countries, oil prices have maintained a surprisingly resilient stance." Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, the UAE's energy minister, said that the oil market is absorbing the increased production from OPEC+ without adding to inventories, indicating that the market is thirsty for more oil. He said, "You can see that even with consecutive months of production increases, there hasn't been a significant buildup in inventories, which means the market needs this oil." (Wenhua Comprehensive)